It's not exactly a blanket tariff, it's more complicated than that and there are exceptions (like cellphones for example) but I see the point you're making. Cellphones are too expensive. My wife and I both have fairly high income jobs, and we don't have kids, so we have more liquid cash than a lot of folks these days, and I still refuse to buy a new one. I'll buy a Samsung Galaxy that 1–2 years old that's either used but looks brand new or sometimes a refurbished one, so I generally don't spend more than $400-$500 bucks for a phone, and then I keep it 3–4 years. My wife a little more often but she is a shutterbug and always has to have the latest freakin' cellphone camera lol. (I still don't buy her brand-new phones, but I do end up buying more expensive and more often for her than I do myself)
I was soooo mad back when that happened, lol. I think one thing a lot of people have lost sight of is that all of those people in DC are our representatives, and as such the American taxpayer is ultimately the ones on the hook for all the money Washington spends. It's also why voting is so important, although at this point, I don't think there's very many people in Washington anymore that give a crap about America. At this point I'm convinced that the only way to make the government better is probably by dismantling it and redoing it from the ground up, but that'll never happen in my lifetime, if at all.
I also think you're fundamentally wrong about it not coming down to another bailout too, and here's why. Most people aren't aware of the shadow banking industry (think hedge funds but shady) and how they are leveraged anywhere from 10-20x into US Treasury basis trades. (strategies that exploit price differences between Treasury securities and their futures contracts) I won't bore you with the boring financial details (I'm not sure that I understand 100% of it myself lol) but suffice it to say that if Trump hadn't paused his tariff plans again the entire global economy would be coming unravelled right now. In fact, that was the whole reason he paused his tariff plans. The shadow banks that are over leveraged were in a panic this week because the extreme market volatility caused them to have to start cashing everything out, even for losses. Liquidity in the bond market dried up and caused a record number of margin calls last week for all those shady hedge funds. It essentially turned in to a mad dash for cash but there was so much demand to get any cash out they could that the liquidity in the bond market all but dried up, meaning even if they want to sell off what they had left they couldn't because no one was buying. If that had continued, the Fed would have had to step in and put liquidity back in to the bond market, or essentially a bailout. Now they might have done it under the radar, which they often times do, but they would have been forced to step in had Trump not backed off. they had to do the same thing during 2020 covid crisis.
The Federal Reserve estimated that hedge funds held at least
$317 billion in Treasury securities related to basis trades since early 2022. Other analyses suggest that the gross notional exposure of these trades could be as high as
$800 billion, with some reports indicating figures approaching
$1 trillion. Now bear in mind that is just the actual cash that these shady hedge funds had in these basis trades. If you recall I said earlier that these shadow banks are leveraged in between 10-20x? Even if we take the average of the analyses ($317B - $1T) which would be roughly
$700 billion and multiply it by the average estimate of how much these shady hedge funds are leveraged (10-20x so we'll call it 15x), then the actual money at stake here is somewhere around
$10.5 Trillion dollars. Nobody's economy can absorb a blow like that. To put it in perspective, the combined market capitalization of the "Magnificent Seven" companies is approximately
$14.5 trillion. These companies are, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Tesla, and Nvidia. These are the 7 most valuable companies in the US, and they're in the top 10 or 12 in the world. Can you imagine what would happen to the economy if all 7 of these companies went belly up at the same time? If this kind of stuff doesn't piss you off then it should because these people are playing with fire, and it should be illegal. (at least using reckless leverage like that, anyway.) I mean, regular people would never be able to do something like this. This would be like a regular person who had, let's say 20k to invest, and they go to a bank and try to borrow 15x that amount ($300,000). The bank would laugh at you all the way out the door. I doubt anyone in here could get a 300k loan for much of anything (I sure couldn't), but for high risk investing? Ya, they're not just laughing at you, they're falling over backwards in their chairs. lol
Market Capitalizations of the Magnificent Seven:
- Apple (AAPL): $3.87 trillion
- Microsoft (MSFT): $3.13 trillion
- Alphabet (GOOGL): $2.03 trillion
- Amazon (AMZN): $1.85 trillion
- Meta Platforms (META): $1.45 trillion
- Tesla (TSLA): $833.5 billion
- Nvidia (NVDA): $1.14 trillion